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8bf62e2644 feat(p2p-intel): the exchange tab becomes spread intelligence, with rails, drift capture, and three of four limits closed
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The exchange tab in nigig-mpesa and nigig-pay was a swap mock-up -- Sell/Buy
cards showing hardcoded ETH and AAVE at $38,409.24, wired to nothing -- above
six rate labels, each built from the *first* cached advert for its exchange:

    Binance P2P: USDT BUY @ 129.92 KES  min 1000 max 200000  via BANK

That is a price, not an opportunity. It never compared the two sides of the
book, said nothing about whether the counterparty could be dealt with, and
ignored what it costs to move the money. Against the live KES book it would
have shown a 134.60 advert from a merchant with three completed trades.

Both pages now run the p2p-intel analyzer over the adverts the app already
caches. No new endpoint, no new traffic, api.rs untouched -- the data was
always there, nothing was being asked of it. The two files are
byte-identical and CI now fails if they drift apart, which they already had
once: data.rs differs between the apps by 188 lines of tests one copy has
and the other does not.

**Rails, because a spread alone is a lie.** 29 bps on a 10,000 KES trade is
29 KES of gross margin; M-Pesa Send Money costs 55 KES a leg, 110 round
trip. The trade is deeply negative and the spread says nothing about it.
rail.rs prices every route and ranks by what survives. M-Pesa fees come from
the published Safaricom bands in robius_ussd::mpesa_bands -- real tariff
rows, not estimates, and flat rather than percentage, which is exactly why
the same spread is ruinous at 500 KES and fine at 200,000. Both legs are
charged. An amount outside the tariff reports OutOfRange and an
unconfigured bank reports Unknown; neither reports zero, because zero is a
claim and it is the wrong one. Bank tariffs ship unconfigured for the same
reason: every bank differs and there is no table to default to.

**API drift capture.** These endpoints are internal and undocumented. When
one changes the symptom is an empty panel -- indistinguishable from a quiet
market -- and the response that broke it is gone by the time anyone looks.
Every parse failure is now recorded with the payload excerpt that caused it
and copyable as a plain-text report. Deduplicated, because a 30-second poll
against a changed endpoint fails 120 times an hour and 120 identical rows is
a log nobody reads; the excerpt is excluded from the equality check, since
two responses differing only in advert ids are the same drift. The exported
header states that it carries response excerpts only and never a request,
credential or account number -- the type can only be constructed from a
response body, so that is enforced rather than promised. Cutting the excerpt
is done on character boundaries: Binance really returns names like
BennyBoss and a byte slice would panic mid-character.

The repo's other clipboard code (nigig-build's crdt_widget.rs) answers a
Hit::TextCopy, which is the query-driven path the platform uses for Ctrl+C
on a focused widget. Right for a text editor, wrong for a button exporting a
report the user never selected, so this uses cx.copy_to_clipboard and
confirms in the UI -- a copy button with no feedback is one people press
three times.

On the four limits, the honest scoreboard is two closed, one usefully
sidestepped, one open. ADR 0035 records why, because rounding all four up to
"addressed" would have been the easy write-up and the wrong one.

The poll timer and the host clock are closed outright. cx.start_interval
delivers the tick as an ordinary UI-thread event, so there is no runtime and
nothing to join at shutdown, and the interval reads through
effective_poll_seconds so the fifteen-second floor still applies -- a config
file cannot be used to hammer a rate-limited endpoint, which a test pins by
name. Staleness is now shown, because a price from four minutes ago is not a
price. One ambiguity is recorded rather than hidden: last_scan_ms == 0 is the
"never scanned" sentinel, so a scan whose timestamp genuinely is 0 reads as
never. That only happens when the host clock is broken, which is exactly
when the UI should not claim the data is current.

The headless-backend limit is sidestepped, and the distinction matters
enough to write down. Xvfb is a real X11 server that draws into memory, so
the app gets the display it insists on and tools/test-p2p-app-smoke.sh runs
the real binary end to end. That earned its place immediately: it caught
`Row = <View> { ... }`, which is not valid in this fork's script language
and which cargo build is entirely silent about, because script_mod! is
parsed at *runtime* -- a broken widget tree compiles perfectly and then
renders nothing. The gate greps for [E] in the log for that reason; the
process exits 0. I verified it fails by reintroducing the bad syntax. What
it still cannot do is drive widgets: makepad_test's Selector::id(..).click()
needs the harness to own the event loop, so the six #[ignore]d interaction
tests stay ignored.

OS notifications stay open. There is no robius-notification crate beside
robius-sms and robius-ussd, and Makepad exposes none on any target; building
one means NotificationCompat on Android, UNUserNotification on iOS and a
D-Bus call on Linux. What shipped is the seam plus one implementation named
UnavailableNotifications -- named for what it is, because a DefaultNotifier
that silently discarded every alert would read like a working feature at
every call site. is_delivering() returns false and the UI shows the reason,
so the user is told that alerts stop with the window instead of assuming
they are covered. A no-op reporting success is the exact "declared versus
delivered" failure ADR 0017 exists to prevent.

223 tests, coverage 97.03% with fifteen per-file floors -- seven of them new
and all measured, after I noticed an earlier edit had silently failed to
apply and the new files were being counted in the total but gated by
nothing. CI gains the Xvfb smoke job and an exchange-tab job that builds
both host apps and diffs their pages.
2026-09-01 16:07:43 +00:00
eaeebd3910 feat(p2p-intel): Binance P2P spread intelligence, shaped by what the live book actually contains
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A new nested workspace under crates/apps/p2p-intel: six engine crates, a
CLI, and a Makepad dashboard that builds for desktop, Android and iOS. It
reads public P2P adverts, measures the spread that is actually fillable,
alerts when one is worth acting on, and tracks what the float really cost.

It never places an order. Binance publishes no P2P trading API, and
automating an escrow release is how a merchant loses their float to
chargeback fraud. This is the intelligence layer; execution stays manual.

The design came from a live capture rather than a sketch, and the capture
contradicted the sketch three times. All three are now pinned by tests
against checked-in real payloads.

**The best price is routinely the least fillable one.** In the KES book the
top sell advert was 134.60 from a merchant with three completed trades,
implying a 3.6% spread; the next was 130.30. Another advert showed a 0%
completion rate. A best-price scan with no quality floor does not find
opportunities, it finds outliers, and outliers on a P2P book are bait or a
merchant about to run dry. QualityFilter defaults to 95% completion and 50
orders, and analyse() reports every exclusion with its reason rather than
dropping it silently.

The honest consequence is recorded in the integration suite: at those
defaults **not one sell-side advert in the captured KES book qualified**.
There was no fillable arbitrage. A tool that reported the raw best-price
number would have sent its user after a trade that does not exist, so the
test asserts best_sell is None and net_bps is None rather than asserting a
comfortable number.

**tradeType is inverted between request and response.** Asking the endpoint
for tradeType "BUY" returns adverts whose own adv.tradeType reads "SELL".
Both are correct: the request parameter is what you want to do, the response
field is what the advertiser is doing. Conflating them inverts every spread
and the result still looks plausible, which makes it the most expensive
mistake available here. Side keeps the two apart with
request_trade_type()/advert_trade_type(), and a test asserts they are never
equal.

**An empty market answers HTTP 200 with success: true.** NGN returned zero
adverts. "No ads" and "no answer" need opposite responses, so
is_empty_market() is a named predicate and ScanError separates Malformed
(Binance changed the payload; retrying makes it worse) from Network
(transient). basis_points_above returns None against a zero base rather than
an infinity, so an empty book cannot read as an infinite opportunity at 3am.

Money is never a float, following the rule in nigig-pay-domain/src/money.rs.
IEEE 754 cannot represent 0.1 and a spread is a difference of two nearly
equal numbers, which is exactly where binary floating point loses the digits
that matter. Binance sends prices as decimal strings, so Price parses them
straight into scaled i128 integers and never passes through f64. i128 rather
than i64 because the intermediate in a bps calculation overflows, not the
result. Excess precision is refused rather than rounded and a thousands
separator is refused rather than dropped: "1,299.92" read as 129992 is a
1000x error that still looks like a price. Tests pin 0.1 + 0.2 == 0.3 and
rotate 100 round trips at one price asserting exactly zero P&L.

Alerting is mostly restraint. At a 30-second poll one wide spread would fire
120 identical messages an hour, and a channel that cries wolf gets muted, at
which point the tool has negative value because the user believes they are
covered. AlertGate suppresses repeats inside a cooldown and re-alerts early
only when the spread improves materially -- a collapsing spread is not worth
waking someone for. Telegram MarkdownV2 escaping is tested against a real
merchant name from the capture, Twin_traders00, whose underscore would
otherwise make Telegram reject the message with a 400 and deliver nothing.

Writing the dashboard view model found a bug in my own comparator: sorting
descending by swapping the tuple to (b, a) also silently swaps the meaning
of the None arms, which put dead markets at the top of the opportunity list.
The test that caught it was written first and named for the behaviour, not
the implementation.

Networking is behind a non-default `live` feature, so an ordinary cargo test
cannot make a request and CI never depends on Binance being reachable. A CI
step asserts reqwest is absent from the default dependency graph so this
cannot regress quietly. A live scan was run once to confirm the fixtures
match reality; it reported a negative spread for KES and an empty NGN book,
which is the tool working correctly.

Conventions follow the repo rather than the generic layout in the request:
.forgejo/workflows/p2p-intel.yml rather than .github, and no Dockerfile,
since the stack is pure Rust and nothing else here is containerised.
error_set is used instead of anyhow, matching nigig-core. The root
Cargo.toml excludes the nested workspace by name, as it already does for
makepad_table, so the isolation is intentional rather than dependent on a
table inside someone else's manifest.

106 tests, coverage 96.86% with per-file floors enforced by
tools/test-p2p-coverage.sh. Both the total and per-file gates were verified
to actually fail by running them with impossible floors; a gate that cannot
fail is decoration. Two files are excluded and only because they were first
emptied of decisions: the Makepad widget, which needs a GPU and a windowing
backend this repo has no headless backend for, and the CLI main, which is
argument parsing and println. Every rule the widget renders lives in
view_model.rs, measured at 97%. That split is deliberate --
spreadsheet-ui/grid.rs once hid 36 pure functions behind a file-level
exclusion, and excluding a file you have not emptied of logic is how that
happens.

The Makepad desktop binary was built and linked in the sandbox to prove the
app half is real and not just a compiling stub.
2026-09-01 09:13:43 +00:00